Still thinking about Bill Miller and found several blog posts with thoughts on what can be learned from his mistakes. So, if you are in the mood for more, read on here:
It is fascinating that the big collapses (he financial debacles that are studied years later as well as the crushing military defeats) often happen after a long period of wins. Why? Because the decision makers fall in love with their ability (over confidence) and believe that just because it worked in the past, it will work again.
It seems pretty clear that he really believes (maybe now it would be believed) in buying more as they went down. This was a contributing factor to his success, and make no mistake he was wildly successful for a long time, and also a contributing factor in his..what should we say..fall from grace or whatever.